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Comprehensive plans · Layer 3 (composes 3 super systems)

Research-backed decision OS (Layer 3)

Turn public-source signals into a priority queue. This Layer 3 calc runs household cash flow and contractor business chains, then scores the official-feed assumptions that could change the decision.

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Inputs

Result

13 public-source checks across 12 feeds. Top swing: Set weather-delay contingency before exterior work.

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Top research-backed move: $7,560 active-work buffer

  1. 1

    Live official-source snapshot

    /api/public-data-feeds/signals?format=summary&area=AZ

    Server-cached ShowMath endpoint for BLS, Treasury, USAspending, CFPB complaints, Federal Register, NWS, NASA POWER, USGS Water Services, OpenFEMA disaster declarations, USGS earthquakes, NHTSA vPIC, NHTSA recalls, and SEC signals. Use it to refresh the manual assumptions above without putting live fetches in the calculator render path.

  2. 2

    Household chain

    Household OS ran 3 chains. Top priority: Protect wealth surplus.

    Cash flow, reserve, debt pressure, savings rate, and wealth trajectory.

  3. 3

    Contractor chain

    Net profit $14,200/mo · SE+Fed tax $22,371/yr · Trajectory clears $1,625,000 need.

    Profit engine, tax master, and wealth trajectory for contractor operations.

  4. 4

    Official feed registry

    12 feeds mapped

    nws-weather-api, bls-public-data-api, nasa-power-api, nhtsa-vpic-api, treasury-fiscal-data-api, sec-edgar-data-apis, nhtsa-recalls-api, usaspending-api, federal-register-api, fema-openfema-api, cfpb-consumer-complaints-api, usgs-water-services-api

  5. 5

    1. Set weather-delay contingency before exterior work

    $7,560 active-work buffer

    12% delay risk applied to $63,000 monthly revenue. Source target: National Weather Service forecast/risk. Feed ids: nws-weather-api.

  6. 6

    2. Add material escalation to active bids

    $6,912/yr exposed spend

    $18,000/mo material base repriced by CPI until a trade-specific material feed is wired. Source target: BLS CPI/wage series. Feed ids: bls-public-data-api.

  7. 7

    3. Apply climate-normal exposure before summer field work

    $2,457 heat/solar reserve

    NASA POWER climate normals default is 33.9 C July mean and 8.5 kWh/m2/day June solar. Use it as stable context beside current NWS alerts. Feed ids: nasa-power-api.

  8. 8

    4. Benchmark vehicle or equipment financing spread

    $2,035/yr spread over Treasury

    8.5% financing APR vs 4.8% Treasury baseline on $55,000. Source targets: NHTSA vehicle identity + Treasury fiscal/rate series. Feed ids: nhtsa-vpic-api, treasury-fiscal-data-api.

  9. 9

    5. Check public-company filing freshness before valuation comps

    45 days since benchmark filing

    SEC EDGAR company facts freshness signal from the latest 10-K/10-Q reference company. Refresh comps when benchmark filings are stale. Feed ids: sec-edgar-data-apis.

  10. 10

    6. Add work-truck recall downtime reserve

    $1,375 recall reserve

    NHTSA vehicle recalls default is 10 recall campaigns for the reference 2024 Ford F-150 work-truck model. Use it as fleet maintenance and downtime context, not VIN-specific open-recall status. Feed ids: nhtsa-recalls-api.

  11. 11

    7. Size public-sector demand before chasing government work

    $76,500,000,000 state award baseline

    USAspending federal awards state recipient profile gives a public-market intensity signal. Carry $1,205 pursuit buffer against monthly contractor revenue when government work is in the pipeline. Feed ids: usaspending-api.

  12. 12

    8. Put idle reserve cash against the current rate baseline

    $864/yr Treasury-rate benchmark

    $18,000 cash at 4.8% short-term Treasury reference. Source target: Treasury fiscal/rate series. Feed ids: treasury-fiscal-data-api.

  13. 13

    9. Review rule changes that can break assumptions

    $750 review allowance

    3 relevant monthly documents x 2 review hours x $125/hr. Source target: Federal Register rule changes. Feed ids: federal-register-api.

  14. 14

    10. Account for declared disaster recovery and access context

    $630 declaration reserve

    FEMA disaster declarations default is 1 state declarations in the last year. Use it as recovery/access context, not emergency guidance. Feed ids: fema-openfema-api.

  15. 15

    11. Refresh wage and inflation assumptions

    $480/yr real-income tailwind

    3.6% wage growth vs 3.2% CPI. Source target: BLS CPI/wage series. Feed ids: bls-public-data-api.

  16. 16

    12. Add consumer-finance complaint pressure before debt or mortgage moves

    $158 consumer-finance reserve

    CFPB consumer complaints default is 176 state mortgage complaints received in the last 90 days. Treat this as public complaint pressure context, not a representative harm measure or company ranking. Feed ids: cfpb-consumer-complaints-api.

  17. 17

    13. Add hydrology context to access and runoff assumptions

    $250 streamflow reserve

    USGS water streamflow default is 47.6 cfs at the Verde River reference gauge. Use it as access/runoff context, not as a flood forecast. Feed ids: usgs-water-services-api.

Assumptions & notes
  • This Layer 3 calculator is feed-ready: it records official source targets without live-fetching at render time.
  • Use /api/public-data-feeds/signals?format=summary&area=AZ for the live no-key snapshot, and /api/public-data-feeds on ShowMath, ProJobCalc, and MitchReise to discover the same feed ids from machines or /play.
  • Census is tracked as a free-key feed, not a no-secret feed, because current Census API queries require a key.
  • This is planning math, not tax, investment, legal, lending, construction, or weather-safety advice.

Multi-scenario comparison

What if — ±20% on one input

ScenarioAnnual household incomeHeadlineΔ vs baselineMagnitude
−20% (cautious)$96,00013 public-source checks across 12 feeds. Top swing: Set weather-delay contingency before exterior work.0
Baseline$120,00013 public-source checks across 12 feeds. Top swing: Set weather-delay contingency before exterior work.0
+20% (aggressive)$144,00013 public-source checks across 12 feeds. Top swing: Set weather-delay contingency before exterior work.0

Try the input with the highest sensitivity (above). The Δ column shows the dollar swing from a 20% move — that's how much room you have for a counter, raise, or hedge.

Goal seek

Solve for an input value

Pick the input you want to vary and the output you care about. We'll find the input value that gets you to the target. Bisection-based; converges in < 50 iterations.

Monte Carlo simulation

Distribution under input uncertainty (500 trials)

We perturb every numeric input with normal-distributed noise (10–25% sigma depending on input type) and run 500 compute trials. The output is a probability distribution, not a single number — closer to how finance actually works.

Most-leveraged inputs (sensitivity analysis)

Where to focus — what moves the answer most

Each input perturbed ±10%; measured impact on Live official-source snapshot. Higher elasticity = bigger lever.

  1. 1

    Annual household income

    Elasticity ↕ 0.00× — 10% change in this input affects Live official-source snapshot by 0.0%.

  2. 2

    Monthly take-home

    Elasticity ↕ 0.00× — 10% change in this input affects Live official-source snapshot by 0.0%.

  3. 3

    Monthly essential expenses

    Elasticity ↕ 0.00× — 10% change in this input affects Live official-source snapshot by 0.0%.

  4. 4

    Cash savings

    Elasticity ↕ 0.00× — 10% change in this input affects Live official-source snapshot by 0.0%.

ShowMath is the only calc site that surfaces this. Adjust the highest-leverage input first — that's where small moves create big results.

Chain payload (for the 3D constellation)
{
  "slug": "research-backed-decision-os",
  "depth": 3,
  "primitives": [
    "budget-calculator",
    "emergency-fund-calculator",
    "cash-reserve-planner",
    "contractor-profit-engine",
    "material-price-escalation",
    "vehicle-tco-master",
    "business-valuation-engine"
  ],
  "composes": [
    "household-money-os",
    "contractor-business-360",
    "life-math"
  ],
  "chain": [
    {
      "key": "live_signal_endpoint",
      "label": "Live official-source snapshot",
      "numeric": 12
    },
    {
      "key": "household_chain",
      "label": "Household chain",
      "numeric": 4.090909090909091
    },
    {
      "key": "contractor_chain",
      "label": "Contractor chain",
      "numeric": 63000
    },
    {
      "key": "source_registry",
      "label": "Official feed registry",
      "numeric": 12
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_1",
      "label": "1. Set weather-delay contingency before exterior work",
      "numeric": 7560
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_2",
      "label": "2. Add material escalation to active bids",
      "numeric": 6912
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_3",
      "label": "3. Apply climate-normal exposure before summer field work",
      "numeric": 2456.999999999999
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_4",
      "label": "4. Benchmark vehicle or equipment financing spread",
      "numeric": 2035.0000000000002
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_5",
      "label": "5. Check public-company filing freshness before valuation comps",
      "numeric": 1575
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_6",
      "label": "6. Add work-truck recall downtime reserve",
      "numeric": 1375
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_7",
      "label": "7. Size public-sector demand before chasing government work",
      "numeric": 1204.875
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_8",
      "label": "8. Put idle reserve cash against the current rate baseline",
      "numeric": 864
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_9",
      "label": "9. Review rule changes that can break assumptions",
      "numeric": 750
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_10",
      "label": "10. Account for declared disaster recovery and access context",
      "numeric": 630
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_11",
      "label": "11. Refresh wage and inflation assumptions",
      "numeric": 479.9999999999999
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_12",
      "label": "12. Add consumer-finance complaint pressure before debt or mortgage moves",
      "numeric": 450
    },
    {
      "key": "source_action_13",
      "label": "13. Add hydrology context to access and runoff assumptions",
      "numeric": 350
    }
  ]
}

The chain explained

Each step above corresponds to a primitive calculator. Click any to see the stand-alone version with its own explainer + sources.

  • budget calculatorshipping soon
  • emergency fund calculator
  • cash reserve plannershipping soon
  • contractor profit engineshipping soon
  • material price escalationshipping soon
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Composes Cash-flow Command Center + Cash Reserve Planner + Wealth Trajectory into one household priority queue.

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