Marketing · free calculator
Blog vs paid channel mix
Compare CAC and 36-month NPV of organic content marketing vs paid acquisition spend at the same total marketing budget.
36-mo NPV (mix vs all-paid)
Show the work
- Organic customers (36 mo)5,114
- Paid customers (36 mo)2,945
- Blended CAC at 36 mo$134
Mix wins — eventually
Pure paid acquisition is fast but expensive at scale. Pure organic is cheap but slow. The math at 36-month horizons typically favors a mix, because the organic CAC at maturity is usually 3-5x cheaper than paid.
The phases
- Months 1-3: organic produces ZERO customers. All your shifted budget produces nothing in the short run.
- Months 4-6: organic ramps; CAC still 2-3x higher than mature.
- Months 7-12: organic CAC approaches steady-state. Mix starts winning.
- Months 13-36: mix dominates. Organic compounding pays off.
Default scenario
$30k/mo budget, 40% organic ($12k) + 60% paid ($18k):
- 36-month organic customers: ~3,600 at avg CAC $120 (averaged ramp)
- 36-month paid customers: ~2,950 at $220 CAC
- All-paid scenario: 4,910 customers at $220 CAC
- Mix winner: 6,550 customers vs 4,910 — 33% more customers at same spend
Why founders default to all-paid
- Speed: paid produces customers month 1; organic doesn't until month 4-6
- Predictability: paid CAC is measurable; organic ROI uncertain
- Easier to scale headcount: hiring SDRs is more legible than hiring content writers
- Capital constraints: organic compounds slowly, dies fast in cash crunch
When pure paid is right
- You're 18 months from profitability cliff and need customers NOW
- Your category is so new there's no SEO demand to capture
- You have unique paid creative IP (e.g. founder-personality LinkedIn ads at scale)
- Your LTV:CAC at paid scale is comfortably > 3:1
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