Webinar funnel break-even calculator

Webinar ROI — finding where your funnel actually breaks

The paid-ad → webinar → close funnel has five conversion steps, and the variance compounds. A 30% drop in any one step roughly halves your ROI. Most failed webinar funnels look fine on individual metrics but multiply to disaster.

The full funnel

clicks = ad spend ÷ CPC
registrants = clicks × reg rate
attendees = registrants × show-up rate
buyers = attendees × close rate
revenue = buyers × AOV
ROI = (revenue − fulfillment − ad spend) ÷ ad spend

Industry benchmarks (real, not blog claims)

| Step | Bad | Average | Best-in-class | |------|-----|---------|---------------| | CPC (B2C info-product) | $6+ | $3-5 | <$2.50 | | Reg rate (cold traffic) | <20% | 25-35% | 40%+ | | Show-up rate (live) | <25% | 30-40% | 50%+ | | Close rate (live) | <3% | 5-8% | 10-15% | | Replay close rate | <1% | 1.5-3% | 3-5% |

What kills funnels

1. CPC creep — Meta CPMs have grown 30%+ YoY. Test cold + warm audiences separately; warm CTRs decay fast.
2. Show-up rate decay — without 3+ reminder emails + an SMS, expect 25-30% show-up. Add reminder sequences and you can hit 40%+.
3. Mismatch between hook and offer — a 'Free Course' headline that sells a $2,000 mastermind crashes close rate.
4. Pitch timing — selling in the first 30 minutes of a 90-min webinar leaves attendees no time to digest. Selling at 60-75 min hits peak.
5. No replay funnel — 60-70% of registrants don't show live. A well-built replay sequence captures another 20-30% of total revenue.

Working backwards from a ROAS target

If you want 3x ROAS (200% ROI net of fulfillment) at $1000 AOV with 80% gross margin:

• Need $0.30 of revenue per $1 ad spend after fulfillment? No — $4 of revenue per $1 ad spend gross.
• That's $4000 revenue per $1000 ad spend = 4 buyers per $1000.
• At $4.50 CPC = 222 clicks per $1000.
• 222 × 30% reg × 35% show × 6% close = 1.4 buyers. You need a 17%+ close rate at this CPC, which is unrealistic.
• So either: lower CPC ($3 → 333 clicks → 2.1 buyers, still short), or raise AOV to $1500 (4 buyers × $1500 = $6000 → 3x).